Part of Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?

Rank #1450·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolved Nov 21, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
4.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.4% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$47,533.47
Liquidity
$2,652.80
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
5%

Market Microstructure

Mid
2.6%
Spread
2.80% (10769bps)
Depth
$2.7k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Resolved Nov 21, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
December 24
2.6%Trade
December 15
-Trade
December 18
-Trade
December 20
-Trade
November 25
-Trade
November 26
-Trade
December 19
-Trade
November 22
-Trade
November 24
-Trade
November 23
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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