Part of Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?
Resolved Nov 21, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
44.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 62.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$9,290.17
Liquidity
$1,523.57
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
76%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
38%
Spread
12.00% (3158bps)
Depth
$1.5k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Resolved Nov 21, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
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