Part of Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

Q: Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? - Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?

Current market consensus shows a 78% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist

Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics

Current YES Probability

78.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 59.5%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$10.00

Liquidity

$225.12

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

81%

Market Microstructure

Mid

41%

Spread

75.00% (18519bps)

Depth

$225

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Dec 31, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
Greece	53.5%	Trade
Belgium	53.0%	Trade
Finland	50.5%	Trade
Austria	49.5%	Trade
Italy	46.5%	Trade
The Netherlands	43.5%	Trade
New Zealand	42.0%	Trade
Japan	40.5%	Trade
Germany	18.0%	Trade
the US	9.5%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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