Part of 2026 Winter Olympics: 3rd Most Medals

Will Japan win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rank #14647·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Feb 22, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowSports
Current YES Probability
28.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 85.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$5.00
Liquidity
$5,163.13
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
30%

Market Microstructure

Mid
15%
Spread
26.00% (17333bps)
Depth
$5.2k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Feb 22, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Sports
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Netherlands
36.4%Trade
Germany
35.5%Trade
China
26.5%Trade
Switzerland
22.0%Trade
the United States
16.0%Trade
Japan
15.0%Trade
Canada
15.0%Trade
Sweden
14.5%Trade
France
7.5%Trade
Norway
7.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the third most medals (including gold, silver, and bronze) at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026. In the case of ties, the ordered list for most medals won will use most gold medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most medals won, and Norway wins more gold medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher. This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

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