Part of AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
Resolves Aug 4, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
86.3%0.0% (24h)
NO: 56.4%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$81.66
Liquidity
$109.31
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
87%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
44%
Spread
85.40% (19587bps)
Depth
$109
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Aug 4, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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