Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be released today?

Rank #6104·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves — BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
75.4%0.0% (24h)
NO: 24.6% Updated just now
Analysis...
Last 24h trend
Volume (Period)
Total Volume
$74.78
Liquidity
$219.88
Thin
Volatility
Confidence (R²)

Market Info

Resolution Date
TBD
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

SentimentNeutral

YES / NO Ratio
-%/-%
Market Skew(0.0% 24h)-
Retail Sentiment-
Maker/Taker Bias-

Community Sentiment

0 votes
BearishNeutralBullish

Markets Across Platforms

PlatformYesNoAction
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Resolution Rules

A federal judge ordered the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from immigration detention on December 11, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-orders-immediate-release-kilmar-abrego-garcia-immigration/story?id=126511576. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kilmar Abrego Garcia is released from custody by December 11, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Abrego Garcia is released from custody by the resolution date but remains under house arrest, this market will resolve to "Yes". If Abrego Garcia is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving government custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Abrego Garcia to another location of custody (i.e., a separate immigration detention facility, criminal custody in a prison or jail, or a hospital under custodial guard) will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant U.S. government bodies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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