This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?

Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?

Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Will the Georgia win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Will the San Francisco win the 2026 Pro Football Championship?

Will the Buffalo win the 2026 Pro Football Championship?

Will the Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Will the New England win the 2026 Pro Football Championship?

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Will the Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship?

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair?

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?

Who will win MVP?

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump

Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Outcomes