Part of Eurovision Winner 2026

Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves May 16, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
4.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 96.9% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$848.24
Liquidity
$5,713.48
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
6%

Market Microstructure

Mid
3.1%
Spread
1.80% (5806bps)
Depth
$5.7k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
May 16, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Israel
14.5%Trade
Sweden
12.5%Trade
Ukraine
11.0%Trade
France
5.0%Trade
Belgium
5.0%Trade
Moldova
4.2%Trade
Norway
3.8%Trade
Germany
3.1%Trade
Luxembourg
3.1%Trade
Croatia
2.8%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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