Part of Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

Will Mari Yamamoto be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 22, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
3.4%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.8% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$2,868.76
Liquidity
$1,159.33
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
5%

Market Microstructure

Mid
2.3%
Spread
2.30% (10222bps)
Depth
$1.2k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 22, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Teyana Taylor
99.0%Trade
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
87.5%Trade
Amy Madigan
84.5%Trade
Elle Fanning
61.5%Trade
Wunmi Mosaku
58.0%Trade
Ariana Grande
53.5%Trade
Gwyneth Paltrow
17.5%Trade
Emily Blunt
8.7%Trade
Regina Hall
5.5%Trade
Glenn Close
4.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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