Part of Oscars 2026: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

Will No Other Choice win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rank #10276·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Mar 15, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
0.2%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.9% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$6,091.14
Liquidity
$5,123.83
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
0%

Market Microstructure

Mid
0.15%
Spread
0.10% (6667bps)
Depth
$5.1k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Mar 15, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
One Battle After Another
81.5%Trade
Hamnet
9.5%Trade
Train Dreams
4.8%Trade
Nuremberg
2.3%Trade
Frankenstein
2.0%Trade
Nouvelle Vague
1.6%Trade
Wicked: For Good
1.6%Trade
The Life of Chuck
0.6%Trade
Wake Up Dead Man
0.4%Trade
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
0.3%Trade

Resolution Rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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