Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Q: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Current market consensus shows a 5% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Rank #1480·0 on watchlist

Resolves Jul 20, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral

Current YES Probability

4.7%0.0% (24h)

NO: 95.3%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$588,965.56

Liquidity

$87,102.08

Moderate

Volatility

—

Market Split

Market Microstructure

Mid

4.7%

Spread

0.10% (215bps)

Depth

$87.1k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Jul 20, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
Spain	14.5%	Trade
England	12.5%	Trade
France	12.5%	Trade
Argentina	10.5%	Trade
Brazil	8.5%	Trade
Portugal	8.5%	Trade
Germany	7.5%	Trade
Norway	4.7%	Trade
Netherlands	3.5%	Trade
Italy	2.1%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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