Part of How many days will NYC record precipitation in December?

Will NYC record precipitation on exactly 13 days in December?

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polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech
Current YES Probability
29.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 81.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$15.00
Liquidity
$62.26
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
38%

Market Microstructure

Mid
19%
Spread
20.00% (10526bps)
Depth
$62
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
exactly 10 days
28.0%Trade
exactly 11 days
26.5%Trade
exactly 9 days
26.0%Trade
exactly 13 days
19.0%Trade
exactly 12 days
17.0%Trade
14 or more days
12.0%Trade
exactly 8 days
5.5%Trade
7 days or fewer
4.0%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of days on which precipitation is recorded as greater than 0 inches in Central Park, New York City between December 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for December 2025 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "NY-Central Park Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" and the summary set to "Number of days" with the threshold at ">0" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of December 2025. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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