Part of Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech
Current YES Probability
59.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 59.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$423.49
Liquidity
$862.74
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
82%

Market Microstructure

Mid
41%
Spread
36.00% (8780bps)
Depth
$863
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Science & Tech
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
by December 31, 2026
41.0%Trade
by March 31, 2026
5.3%Trade
in 2025
0.9%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

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