Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Q: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Current market consensus shows a 3% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist

Resolves Oct 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral

Current YES Probability

3.4%0.0% (24h)

NO: 97.3%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$6,974.25

Liquidity

$21,794.52

Moderate

Volatility

—

Market Split

Market Microstructure

Mid

2.8%

Spread

1.30% (4727bps)

Depth

$21.8k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Oct 31, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
Kylian Mbappé	27.5%	Trade
Harry Kane	19.7%	Trade
Lamine Yamal	18.0%	Trade
Erling Haaland	15.0%	Trade
Vinícius Júnior	6.5%	Trade
Pedri	4.0%	Trade
Cole Palmer	4.0%	Trade
Jude Bellingham	3.6%	Trade
Mohamed Salah	3.1%	Trade
Ousmane Dembélé	2.8%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

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