Part of Oscars 2026: Best Actress Nominations

Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 22, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
94.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 9.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$22,879.83
Liquidity
$5,172.68
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
19%

Market Microstructure

Mid
91%
Spread
7.00% (773bps)
Depth
$5.2k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 22, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Jessie Buckley
97.2%Trade
Rose Byrne
91.5%Trade
Renate Reinsve
90.5%Trade
Emma Stone
75.5%Trade
Amanda Seyfried
35.5%Trade
Eva Victor
33.0%Trade
Cynthia Erivo
21.5%Trade
Jennifer Lawrence
14.5%Trade
Sydney Sweeney
5.5%Trade
June Squibb
5.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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