Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?
Rank #3880·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jan 7, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
12.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 89.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$90,543.81
Liquidity
$6,502.96
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
22%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
11%
Spread
2.00% (1818bps)
Depth
$6.5k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 7, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Russian government or military publicly and officially announces a ceasefire or “truce” in its war against Ukraine that is explicitly tied to Christmas or Orthodox Christmas for the 2025–26 holiday period.
A qualifying announcement must:
The January 2023 unilateral “Orthodox Christmas” ceasefire order is an example of a qualifying announcement.
The announcement alone is sufficient: the truce does not need to be accepted by Ukraine or actually upheld in practice, and any later violations, non-compliance, or cancellation will not change the outcome once a qualifying announcement has been made.
The primary resolution sources will be official Russian government.
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