Part of Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by…?
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
6.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 95.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$742,947.45
Liquidity
$34,149.78
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
10%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
5.0%
Spread
2.00% (4000bps)
Depth
$34.1k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad by the December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Myrnohrad will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rodynske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Myrnohrad Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/myrnohrad.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qCLFQNiDKN2ABe5Q9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
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