Part of Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?

Rank #4136·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolved Sep 30, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
3.8%0.0% (24h)
NO: 96.6% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$1,401,496.19
Liquidity
$30,250.17
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
7%

Market Microstructure

Mid
3.4%
Spread
0.80% (2353bps)
Depth
$30.3k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Resolved Sep 30, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
February 28
73.5%Trade
January 31
44.5%Trade
January 15
19.0%Trade
December 31
3.4%Trade
September 30
-Trade
November 30
-Trade
October 31
-Trade
November 21
-Trade
November 14
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Pokrovsk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Pokrovsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Rih" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the Pokrovsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ixAs4fF8n8ccVeL17 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

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