Part of Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
4.3%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$436,170.78
Liquidity
$32,594.10
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
6%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
3.0%
Spread
2.50% (8197bps)
Depth
$32.6k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Vovchanski Khutory" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Vovchansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vovchansk.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
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