Part of Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
42.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 59.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$673,881.21
Liquidity
$24,951.53
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
81%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
41%
Spread
3.00% (741bps)
Depth
$25.0k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png
Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png
Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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