Part of Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
Resolves Mar 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
67.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 34.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$7,347.89
Liquidity
$13,222.63
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
69%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
66%
Spread
3.00% (458bps)
Depth
$13.2k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by February 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg
Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg
Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
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