Part of Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by November 30?

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?

Rank #5221·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolved Nov 30, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
2.9%0.0% (24h)
NO: 98.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$62,211.33
Liquidity
$7,578.23
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
4%

Market Microstructure

Mid
2.0%
Spread
1.80% (9000bps)
Depth
$7.6k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Resolved Nov 30, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
December 31
2.0%Trade
November 30
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kupyansjk-Vuzlovij railroad station located between Zaliznychna Vulytsia and Zaliznychnykiv Ploshcha by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+1.png Train Station Location in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+2.png Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/2DWkLwtmD3dTUGbc8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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