Part of Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31?
Resolved Nov 30, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
1.9%0.0% (24h)
NO: 98.8%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$12,235.87
Liquidity
$1,564.66
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
3%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
1.3%
Spread
1.30% (10400bps)
Depth
$1.6k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Resolved Nov 30, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv located on Pryvokzalna Vulytsia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the listed date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine" will not qualify.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
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