Part of Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31?

Rank #14647·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolved Sep 30, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
0.7%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$37,175.93
Liquidity
$7,485.84
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
1%

Market Microstructure

Mid
0.50%
Spread
0.40% (8000bps)
Depth
$7.5k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Resolved Sep 30, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
by March 31, 2027
20.0%Trade
by December 31
0.5%Trade
before October
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg Sumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

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