Part of How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?
Rank #839·0 on watchlist
Resolved Dec 25, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
0.6%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.6%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$356,311.63
Liquidity
$13,198.37
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
1%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.40%
Spread
0.40% (10000bps)
Depth
$13.2k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Resolved Dec 25, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | Action |
|---|---|---|
between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 | 98.4% | Trade |
more than 8,400,000,000 | 0.8% | Trade |
between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 | 0.4% | Trade |
fewer than 7,900,000,000 | 0.4% | Trade |
between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 | 0.4% | Trade |
between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 | 0.1% | Trade |
between 7,900,000,000 and 8,000,000,000 | 0.1% | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to the total number of gifts delivered by Santa for Christmas 2025 as reported by the NORAD Santa Tracker website.
If the reported total number of gifts delivered falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as data is finalized for 2025.
If data is not available by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the NORAD Tracks Santa website, https://www.noradsanta.org/en/.
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