Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?
Rank #6244·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
20.7%0.0% (24h)
NO: 84.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$146,827.40
Liquidity
$851.67
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
32%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
16%
Spread
9.50% (5956bps)
Depth
$852
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | Action |
|---|---|---|
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode | 72.0% | Trade |
the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown | 65.5% | Trade |
the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster | 18.5% | Trade |
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31 | 16.0% | Trade |
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31 | 0.6% | Trade |
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30 | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
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