Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Rank #12764·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
76.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 28.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$31,453.05
Liquidity
$1,195.92
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
56%

Market Microstructure

Mid
72%
Spread
8.00% (1111bps)
Depth
$1.2k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode
72.0%Trade
the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown
65.5%Trade
the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster
18.5%Trade
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31
16.0%Trade
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31
0.6%Trade
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

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