Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
76.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 28.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$31,453.05
Liquidity
$1,195.92
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
56%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
72%
Spread
8.00% (1111bps)
Depth
$1.2k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | Action |
|---|---|---|
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode | 72.0% | Trade |
the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown | 65.5% | Trade |
the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster | 18.5% | Trade |
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31 | 16.0% | Trade |
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31 | 0.6% | Trade |
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30 | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
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