Part of How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2025?

Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 2025

Q: How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2025? - Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 2025

Current market consensus shows a 30% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

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Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowScience & Tech

Current YES Probability

30.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 74.0%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$8,748.79

Liquidity

$2,271.94

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

52%

Market Microstructure

Mid

26%

Spread

8.00% (3077bps)

Depth

$2.3k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Jan 31, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
between 400000 and 425000	46.5%	Trade
between 425000 and 450000	26.0%	Trade
between 450000 and 475000	20.8%	Trade
between 375000 and 400000	4.3%	Trade
between 350000 and 375000	1.7%	Trade
500000 or more	0.5%	Trade
between 475000 and 500000	0.4%	Trade
less than 350000	0.4%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2025. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2025 delivery figures by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

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