Part of How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% by March 31?

Q: How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31? - Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% by March 31?

Current market consensus shows a 23% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

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Resolves Mar 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral

Current YES Probability

23.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 86.0%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$13.00

Liquidity

$4,350.61

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

28%

Market Microstructure

Mid

14%

Spread

18.00% (12857bps)

Depth

$4.4k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Mar 31, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
yield hit 4.3%	65.5%	Trade
yield hit 4.4%	46.5%	Trade
yield hit 4.6%	20.0%	Trade
yield hit 4.5%	19.5%	Trade
yield hit 4.8%	14.0%	Trade
yield hit 5.0%	5.0%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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