Part of How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Q: How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? - Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Current market consensus shows a 14% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist

Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral

Current YES Probability

14.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 87.0%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$738.07

Liquidity

$1,013.05

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

26%

Market Microstructure

Mid

13%

Spread

2.00% (1538bps)

Depth

$1.0k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Dec 31, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
yield hit 4.3%	62.5%	Trade
yield hit 4.4%	45.5%	Trade
yield hit 4.5%	35.0%	Trade
yield hit 4.6%	26.5%	Trade
yield hit 4.8%	17.5%	Trade
yield hit 5.0%	13.0%	Trade
yield hit 5.2%	11.5%	Trade
yield hit 5.5%	8.0%	Trade
yield hit 5.7%	7.0%	Trade
yield hit 6.0%	5.6%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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