Part of How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?

Q: How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025? - Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?

Current market consensus shows a 1% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Rank #5216·0 on watchlist

Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral

Current YES Probability

0.5%0.0% (24h)

NO: 99.7%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$1,133,550.49

Liquidity

$3,195.97

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

Market Microstructure

Mid

0.35%

Spread

0.30% (8571bps)

Depth

$3.2k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Dec 31, 2025

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
yield hit 4.8%	0.9%	Trade
yield hit 5.0%	0.5%	Trade
yield hit 4.6%	0.4%	Trade
yield hit 5.2%	0.4%	Trade
yield hit 5.5%	0.3%	Trade
yield hit 5.7%	0.2%	Trade
yield hit 6.0%	0.2%	Trade
yield hit 4.5%	-	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between April 9 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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