Part of Bank of Canada decision in January?

Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the January meeting?

Rank #12401·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 28, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
93.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 8.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$32,805.23
Liquidity
$5,987.91
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
16%

Market Microstructure

Mid
92%
Spread
2.00% (217bps)
Depth
$6.0k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 28, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
no change
92.0%Trade
a 25 bps decrease
6.7%Trade
a 50+ bps decrease
0.8%Trade
an increase
0.4%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's January 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its January 28, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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