Part of SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Rank #9332·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
22.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 81.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$7,929.65
Liquidity
$1,003.62
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
37%

Market Microstructure

Mid
19%
Spread
7.00% (3784bps)
Depth
$1.0k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode
70.0%Trade
the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown
66.0%Trade
the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster
18.5%Trade
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31
18.1%Trade
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31
0.4%Trade
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30
-Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the twelfth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the twelfth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the twelfth launch, and this market will stay open until the twelfth launch has occurred. If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

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