Part of Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?

Rank #7285·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
12.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 89.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$89,234.99
Liquidity
$21,325.59
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
22%

Market Microstructure

Mid
11%
Spread
2.00% (1818bps)
Depth
$21.3k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Cut–Cut–Pause
86.5%Trade
Cut–Cut–Cut
11.0%Trade
decide differently
1.1%Trade
Cut–Pause–Pause
-Trade
Pause–Cut–Pause
-Trade
Cut–Pause–Cut
-Trade
Pause–Cut–Cut
-Trade

Resolution Rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 28–29, 2025; December 9–10, 2025; and January 27–28, 2026. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm If no statement is released for the January 2026 meeting by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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