Part of Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
Resolves Jan 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
12.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 89.0%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$89,234.99
Liquidity
$21,325.59
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
22%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
11%
Spread
2.00% (1818bps)
Depth
$21.3k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 28–29, 2025; December 9–10, 2025; and January 27–28, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the January 2026 meeting by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
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Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
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No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
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