Part of Fed decision in April?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Rank #8455·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Apr 29, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowEconomics
Current YES Probability
29.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 73.0% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$221,831.98
Liquidity
$44,182.75
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
54%

Market Microstructure

Mid
27%
Spread
4.00% (1481bps)
Depth
$44.2k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Apr 29, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Economics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
there be no change in Fed interest rates
65.0%Trade
the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps
27.0%Trade
the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps
3.3%Trade
the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps
3.1%Trade

Resolution Rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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