Part of What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?

Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
17.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 90.9% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$12.29
Liquidity
$1,653.57
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
18%

Market Microstructure

Mid
9.1%
Spread
15.80% (17363bps)
Depth
$1.7k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
lower bound reach 3.25% or lower
89.0%Trade
lower bound reach 3.0% or lower
75.0%Trade
lower bound reach 2.75% or lower
46.0%Trade
lower bound reach 2.5% or lower
23.0%Trade
lower bound reach 2.25% or lower
17.0%Trade
lower bound reach 2.0% or lower
15.5%Trade
upper bound reach 4.25% or higher
14.0%Trade
lower bound reach 1.75% or lower
13.5%Trade
lower bound reach 0.5% or lower
12.5%Trade
upper bound reach 4.75% or higher
12.0%Trade

Resolution Rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Trending in General

#1
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?
+0.0%
#2
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?
+0.0%
#3
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
+0.0%