Part of Highest temperature in NYC on December 31?

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or higher on December 31?

Rank #15283·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
4.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 97.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$34.99
Liquidity
$97.70
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
5%

Market Microstructure

Mid
2.5%
Spread
3.00% (12000bps)
Depth
$98
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
between 34-35°F
48.5%Trade
between 36-37°F
41.5%Trade
between 32-33°F
40.0%Trade
between 30-31°F
10.0%Trade
38°F or higher
2.5%Trade
between 28-29°F
1.5%Trade
27°F or below
0.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Dec '25. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trending in General

#1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
+0.0%
#2
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
+0.0%
#3
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
+0.0%