Part of Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Rank #14626·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
0.8%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.3% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$4,910.16
Liquidity
$8,199.30
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
2%

Market Microstructure

Mid
0.75%
Spread
0.10% (1333bps)
Depth
$8.2k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
Avengers: Doomsday
69.5%Trade
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
15.0%Trade
Toy Story 5
7.0%Trade
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
4.2%Trade
Dune: Messiah
3.4%Trade
The Odyssey
3.4%Trade
Michael
1.7%Trade
Scream 7
1.3%Trade
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
0.8%Trade
Wuthering Heights
0.7%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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