Part of Which team will earn the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Will the Las Vegas Raiders earn the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Q: Which team will earn the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL Draft? - Will the Las Vegas Raiders earn the 1st pick in the 2026 NFL draft?

Current market consensus shows a 76% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

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Resolves Jan 4, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowSports

Current YES Probability

76.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 56.5%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$0.00

Liquidity

$50.01

Thin

Volatility

—

Market Split

87%

Market Microstructure

Mid

44%

Spread

65.00% (14943bps)

Depth

$50

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Jan 4, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
Las Vegas Raiders	43.5%	Trade
Cleveland Browns	42.0%	Trade
Tennessee Titans	41.5%	Trade
New York Jets	35.5%	Trade
Washington Commanders	35.0%	Trade
Arizona Cardinals	34.0%	Trade
New York Giants	33.5%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the team that earns the first pick in the NFL draft according to the official NFL rules for assigning draft picks. The NFL rules for assigning draft picks may be viewed at: https://operations.nfl.com/journey-to-the-nfl/the-nfl-draft/the-rules-of-the-draft/. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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