Part of Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 31?
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
1.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.2%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$73,274.54
Liquidity
$31,228.72
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
2%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.80%
Spread
0.40% (5000bps)
Depth
$31.2k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | Action |
|---|---|---|
no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025 | 93.0% | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 26 | 2.9% | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30 | 1.0% | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 31 | 0.8% | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 28 | 0.7% | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 24 | 0.1% | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 25 | - | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 27 | - | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 29 | - | Trade |
the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 1 | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela.
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).
Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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