Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 1?

Q: Bitcoin above ___ on January 1? - Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 1?

Current market consensus shows a 80% probability of YES based on prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

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Resolves Jan 1, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowCrypto

Current YES Probability

80.0%0.0% (24h)

NO: 22.5%• Updated just now

Analysis...

Volume (24h)

—

Total Volume

$264.22

Liquidity

$13,511.65

Moderate

Volatility

—

Market Split

45%

Market Microstructure

Mid

78%

Spread

5.00% (645bps)

Depth

$13.5k

Tick Size

0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date

Jan 1, 2026

Resolution Source

Platform Decision

Event Outcomes

Outcome	Probability	Action
$80,000	98.5%	Trade
$78,000	97.9%	Trade
$82,000	95.5%	Trade
$84,000	90.5%	Trade
$86,000	77.5%	Trade
$88,000	58.0%	Trade
$90,000	39.5%	Trade
$92,000	22.5%	Trade
$94,000	11.5%	Trade
$96,000	5.1%	Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

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