Part of How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

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polymarket
Resolves Nov 3, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
13.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 87.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$493.69
Liquidity
$7,522.74
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
25%

Market Microstructure

Mid
13%
Spread
1.00% (800bps)
Depth
$7.5k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Nov 3, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
exactly 24 or 25
51.0%Trade
fewer than 22
15.5%Trade
exactly 22 or 23
15.0%Trade
exactly 26 or 27
12.5%Trade
exactly 28 or 29
2.1%Trade
exactly 30 or 31
0.9%Trade
32 or more
0.7%Trade

Resolution Rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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