Part of How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?

Rank #1879·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Feb 28, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
33.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 68.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$539,553.33
Liquidity
$38,391.65
Moderate
Volatility
Market Split
63%

Market Microstructure

Mid
32%
Spread
3.00% (952bps)
Depth
$38.4k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
less than $100b
35.8%Trade
between $100b and $200b
31.5%Trade
between $200b and $500b
27.0%Trade
between $500b and $1t
0.8%Trade
more than $2t
0.6%Trade
between $1t and $2t
0.4%Trade

Resolution Rules

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Trending in General

#1
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025?
+0.0%
#2
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?
+0.0%
#3
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
+0.0%