Part of How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?
Resolves Feb 28, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
29.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 71.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$248,268.52
Liquidity
$6,420.90
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
57%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
29%
Spread
1.00% (351bps)
Depth
$6.4k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Feb 28, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)
If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.
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