Part of Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Rank #3393·0 on watchlist
Resolves Mar 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
9.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 91.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$30,012.18
Liquidity
$7,372.34
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
17%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
8.5%
Spread
1.00% (1176bps)
Depth
$7.4k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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