Part of Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Rank #5733·0 on watchlist
Resolves Mar 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
16.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 84.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$156,599.20
Liquidity
$12,127.01
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
31%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
16%
Spread
1.00% (645bps)
Depth
$12.1k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Event Outcomes
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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