Part of 2026 Winter Olympics: 3rd Most Gold Medals

Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rank #11925·0 on watchlist
polymarket
Resolves Feb 22, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
48.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 62.5% Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
Total Volume
$40.40
Liquidity
$1,989.67
Thin
Volatility
Market Split
75%

Market Microstructure

Mid
38%
Spread
21.00% (5600bps)
Depth
$2.0k
Tick Size
0.10%

Market Info

Resolution Date
Feb 22, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.

Event Outcomes

OutcomeProbabilityAction
the United States
37.5%Trade
Germany
27.0%Trade
Norway
11.5%Trade
Italy
10.0%Trade
Netherlands
10.0%Trade
Canada
9.0%Trade
France
9.0%Trade
China
8.0%Trade
Sweden
6.5%Trade
Switzerland
5.5%Trade

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the third most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026. In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher. This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

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