Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?
Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2025 BinaryUpdated just nowGeneral
Current YES Probability
0.6%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.6%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$146,789.39
Liquidity
$13,982.55
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
1%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.45%
Spread
0.30% (6667bps)
Depth
$14.0k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
General
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Afghanistan between June 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Afghanistan or the United States as of June 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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