Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Rank #15128·0 on watchlist
Resolves Dec 31, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
11.0%0.0% (24h)
NO: 91.5%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$700.82
Liquidity
$7,686.48
Thin
Volatility
—
Market Split
17%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
8.5%
Spread
5.00% (5882bps)
Depth
$7.7k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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