Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?
Rank #5709·0 on watchlist
Resolves Jan 1, 2026 BinaryUpdated just nowPolitics
Current YES Probability
0.3%0.0% (24h)
NO: 99.8%• Updated just now
Analysis...
Volume (24h)
—
Total Volume
$835,383.14
Liquidity
$13,199.05
Moderate
Volatility
—
Market Split
1%
Market Microstructure
Real-time order book metrics. Depth shows available USD liquidity. Open Interest represents outstanding contracts.
Mid
0.25%
Spread
0.10% (4000bps)
Depth
$13.2k
Tick Size
0.10%
Market Info
Resolution Date
Jan 1, 2026
Resolution Source
Platform Decision
Category
Politics
No chart data available.
Markets Across Platforms
| Platform | Yes | No | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
 polymarket | - | - | Trade |
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Trending in Politics
#1
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?
+0.0%
#2
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?
+0.0%
#3
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
+0.0%